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RESEARCH NOTE: The 2024Q3 contraction in GDP underlines the need for a programme of economic reform to restart economic growth. At this stage, the BER’s baseline forecast is for growth to average just below 2% from 2026 to 2029. While this would be faster than the decade prior to the pandemic, this is not enough. In this Comment, the Impumelelo Economic Growth Lab evaluates four areas of focus for policy reform that could lift growth over 3%. But the crux is in the implementation, and any further delays will mean that 3% becomes more and more difficult to reach. This feature allows users to view, track and compare various datasets from Stats SA and the SARB. Although this is a beta version, it provides quick and easy access to key economic data and statistics in one, centralised, place.
CLIENT ACCESS REQUIRED: Following the Q3 GDP release and recent financial market developments, we have made minor adjustments to some of the forecast variables. Our full-year real GDP forecast for 2024 is somewhat lower than before, while the outlook for 2025 remains unchanged.
RESEARCH NOTE: The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has recommended that South Africa adopt fiscal rules, and the National Treasury has committed to a process of consultations on fiscal rules, and to release a discussion by the end of March 2025. This research note explores what fiscal rules are and whether they could improve South Africa’s fiscal sustainability and fiscal credibility. It highlights guiding principles and considerations for fiscal rule design and outlines a possible fiscal rule to initially stabilise debt followed by a debt reduction phase.
21.34/litre
20.55/litre
2.9% y-o-y
-0.7%
0.3% y-o-y
11.25 %
6.3% y-o-y
-2.6% y-o-y
BER Weekly | 17 January
The seasonally adjusted Absa Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) declined by 1.9 points to 46.2 points in December 2024, remaining in contractionary territory. This puts the 2024Q4 average PMI at 49 points, not significantly different from 49.8 points for 2024Q3, but above Q1 (47.8) and Q2 (48.1). The manufacturing sector experienced a volatile 2024, with this second consecutive monthly decline in December reversing the upward momentum seen in September and October.
After increasing to an eight-year high of 50 in 2024Q3, the FNB/BER Civil Confidence Index slipped to 48 in 2024Q4. Sentiment was lower amid renewed weakness in activity growth. However, an improvement in overall profitability partly counteracted this.
The release calendar will be updated each quarter. Please note that these dates may change.
Wednesday
5 March 2025
RMB/BER Business Confidence Index (BCI)
Monday
10 March 2025
FNB/BER Building Confidence Index
Tuesday
18 March 2025
Absa Manufacturing Survey
Tuesday
25 March 2025
FNB/BER Consumer Confidence Index (CCI)
Wednesday
12 March 2025
Other Services Survey
Monday
24 March 2025
Retail Survey
Thursday
27 March 2025
FNB/BER Civil Confidence Index
Monday
17 March 2025
Inflation Expectations Survey
Thursday
3 April 2025
Building Cost Report (BCIS)
The first working day of each month
Absa PMI
The first working day of each month
Update
The first week of each month
Trends
Every Friday
BER Weekly
The BER Economist Internship Programme provides practical training to appropriately qualified previously disadvantaged individuals. The programme equips trainees to function as economists in the private and/or the public sector.
