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NAVIGATING CHANGE: THE GNU AND A TRUMPIAN WORLD ORDER - 6 MAY 2025, PROTEA HOTEL, BALALAIKA, SANDTON. Join us for a full-day Conference on 6 May 2025 in Johannesburg. We will cover the broad sweep of South Africa’s economic landscape, from updating the domestic economic outlook and unpacking the political-economy risks around the GNU to understanding the Trump administration and, most importantly, what it really wants from South Africa. The second half of the programme, facilitated by the BER’s Impumelelo Growth Lab, will include a deep dive into phase two of Operation Vulindlela, examining the progress being made with municipal and water reforms, as well as showcasing some of the latest research in this area.
MARKETS AND BANKING IN AN ERA OF GLOBAL UNCERTAINTY: The Bureau For Economic Research at Stellenbosch recently hosted a seminar on “Markets and banking in an era of global uncertainty” on February 28th, 2025 in Stellenbosch. The seminar is part of a series of events being hosted to mark the centenary of the Faculty of Economic and Management Sciences. Participants of the event were Sir David Ramsden, Deputy Governor of the Bank of England, former Chief Economist of the UK Treasury and Isaah Mhlanga, Chief Economist, Rand Merchant Bank. The event was facilitated By Dr Roy Havemann, Head of the Impumelelo Economic Growth Lab at the BER.
RESEARCH NOTE: The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has recommended that South Africa adopt fiscal rules, and the National Treasury has committed to a process of consultations on fiscal rules, and to release a discussion by the end of March 2025. This research note explores what fiscal rules are and whether they could improve South Africa’s fiscal sustainability and fiscal credibility. It highlights guiding principles and considerations for fiscal rule design and outlines a possible fiscal rule to initially stabilise debt followed by a debt reduction phase.
22.09/litre
21.30/litre
2.7% y-o-y
0.5%
0.9% y-o-y
11.00 %
3.2% y-o-y
-3.2% y-o-y
BER Weekly | 25 April
The seasonally adjusted Absa Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) increased by 4 points to 48.7 in March 2025. While the headline PMI remained in contractionary territory for a fifth consecutive month, this is the highest reading since the 52.6 points recorded in October. Despite some recovery in March, a weak January and February mean that the average for 2025Q1 is at 46.2 points, below 2024Q4’s 49 points.
The FNB/BER Civil Confidence Index shed three points to register a level of 45 in 1Q2025. Weaker overall profitability and business conditions largely account for the deterioration in sentiment. Activity, however, improved while the rating of the lack of new demand as a constraint was moderately lower.
The South African economy underperformed in 2024, with economic growth slowing relative to the load-shedding-ridden year of 2023. While prospects for 2025 were significantly more upbeat, the outlook has deteriorated. We have made a downward revision to our GDP growth forecast.
Read our latest economic forecast.
The release calendar will be updated each quarter. Please note that these dates may change.
Wednesday
4 June 2025
RMB/BER Business Confidence Index (BCI)
Monday
9 June 2025
FNB/BER Building Confidence Index
Tuesday
17 June 2025
Absa Manufacturing Survey
Thursday
26 June 2025
FNB/BER Consumer Confidence Index (CCI)
Monday
23 June 2025
Other Services Survey
Thursday
19 June 2025
Retail Survey
Monday
30 June 2025
FNB/BER Civil Confidence Index
Monday
30 June 2025
Inflation Expectations Survey
Thursday
3 July 2025
Building Cost Report (BCIS)
The first working day of each month
Absa PMI
The first working day of each month
Update
The first week of each month
Trends
Every Friday
BER Weekly
The BER Economist Internship Programme provides practical training to appropriately qualified previously disadvantaged individuals. The programme equips trainees to function as economists in the private and/or the public sector.
