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Short report that reviews important global and domestic financial market and economic data developments of the past week
Research Notes are more in-depth analyses undertaken by BER economists and consultants.
Brief note intended as a more regular interface with our clients.
Our latest infographic examines South Africa’s economic trajectory through the lens of the Balance of Payments. By unpacking key trends in trade, capital flows, and foreign reserves, it offers insights into the forces shaping macroeconomic stability in an open economy like South Africa.
Read MoreThe International Monetary Fund (IMF) has recommended that South Africa adopt fiscal rules, and the National Treasury has committed to a process of consultations on fiscal rules, and to release a discussion by the end of March 2025. This research note explores what fiscal rules are and whether they could improve South Africa’s fiscal sustainability and fiscal credibility. It highlights guiding principles and considerations for fiscal rule design and outlines a possible fiscal rule to initially stabilise debt followed by a debt reduction phase.
Read MoreThe International Monetary Fund (IMF) has recommended that South Africa adopt fiscal rules, and the National Treasury has committed to a process of consultations on fiscal rules, and to release a discussion by the end of March 2025. This research note explores what fiscal rules are and whether they could improve South Africa’s fiscal sustainability and fiscal credibility. It highlights guiding principles and considerations for fiscal rule design and outlines a possible fiscal rule to initially stabilise debt followed by a debt reduction phase.
Read MoreThe 2024Q3 contraction in GDP underlines the need for a programme of economic reform to restart economic growth. At this stage, the BER’s baseline forecast is for growth to average just below 2% from 2026 to 2029. While this would be faster than the decade prior to the pandemic, this is not enough. In this Comment, the Impumelelo Economic Growth Lab evaluates four areas of focus for policy reform that could lift growth over 3%. But the crux is in the implementation, and any further delays will mean that 3% becomes more and more difficult to reach.
Read MoreOperation Vulindlela 2.0 will, among other priorities, focus on strengthening local government to “achieve rapid, inclusive growth.” This research note examines critical reforms to enhance municipal performance, highlighting skills shortages, declining infrastructure investment, and political interference. It proposes recommendations to improve governance, accountability, and service delivery outcomes that are vital to unlock economic opportunities.
Read MoreUS-based economists Daron Acemoglu, Simon Johnson, and James Robinson have been awarded the 2024 Nobel Prize in Economics for their research on the factors influencing strong or weak economies. BER Senior Economist and author of How to Fix (or Unf*ck) a Country, Dr Roy Havemann, shares his insights on this topic in an interview with John Maytham on The Afternoon Drive show
Read MoreThis presentation was prepared by the BER ahead of a meeting between the President and business on the second phase of Operation Vulindlela reforms. It is an update of work undertaken in July 2024. Our research shows that SA economic growth can be jump-started to over 3% in 2025 if a set of reforms are implemented immediately.
Read MoreThe BER is launching the Impumelelo Economic Growth Lab, a new independent hub for analytical research capacity to support economic reform. Impumelelo (“success”) will work closely with government, business and broader society to unlock economic growth.
Read MoreThe Department of Labour (DoL) requests that firms of a certain size annually submit statistics related to the demographic profile of employees. This data monitors and tracks progress concerning employment equity. It also serves as a good barometer against which to compare official (i.e. Stats SA) data. Together with 71point4, the BER has compiled a data snapshot that provides an overview of firms submitting, employment and industry trends and workforce movements.
Read MoreThe year 1994 marked the start of a new political dispensation in South Africa. The initial policy framework of the Government of National Unity (GNU), was set out in a Reconstruction and Development Programme (RDP) White Paper. This research note draws on South Africa’s national accounts as a record of the trend in economic performance, against the background of these plans. It provides a summary of what the national accounts are and how they evolved. Aggregate economic performance is presented in the three broad categories in which the national accounts are compiled: production, income and expenditure. Where possible, we look back to 1950 to provide a historical perspective on economic transitions. Lastly, a forward-looking analysis estimates how economic outcomes could evolve differently if government return to the initial investment goals in the RDP policy.
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