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Pick a Bird. Any Bird: Scenarios for the South African economy (2026-2030) The BER has modelled three options for the South African economy (2026-2030) - the Hadeda, the Marabou and the African Fish Eagle scenarios - to illustrate the choices that could allow the country to enjoy the high road to economic success and how to avoid idling in low gear or taking the low road to economic ruin.
23.25/litre
22.46/litre
3.1% y-o-y
2.3%
2.1% y-o-y
10.25 %
1.6% y-o-y
-2.8% y-o-y
The seasonally adjusted Absa Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rose above the neutral 50-point mark for the first time since September 2025, increasing to 52.6 in April from 49 in March. The improvement was driven by a rebound in both business activity and new sales orders, pointing to a stronger start to the second quarter following a weak first quarter. However, some of this improvement likely reflects front-loading of demand ahead of expected price increases, raising questions about the sustainability of the recovery
The FNB/BER Civil Confidence Index declined to 43 in 2026Q1, from 52 in 2025Q4, returning to its 2025Q3 level. Sentiment weakened despite relatively supportive trends in activity, profitability and order books when compared to long-term averages.
We have revised our near-term growth outlook to reflect a more challenging global and domestic environment, while our medium-term trajectory remains broadly unchanged. Economic Outlook outlines the key drivers shaping the forecast, including elevated geopolitical risk, renewed inflation pressures, and constrained policy space. South Africa’s recovery has lost momentum amid higher fuel costs, weaker consumer demand, and ongoing structural constraints. As a result, growth is expected to remain subdued, with risks to the outlook increasingly skewed to the downside.
Read our latest economic forecast.
The release calendar will be updated each quarter. Please note that these dates may change.
Tuesday
2 June 2026
RMB/BER Business Confidence Index (BCI)
Wednesday
10 June 2026
FNB/BER Building Confidence Index
Monday
8 June 2026
Absa Manufacturing Survey
Tuesday
23 June 2026
FNB/BER Consumer Confidence Index (CCI)
Thursday
25 June 2026
Other Services Survey
Monday
22 June 2026
Retail Survey
Friday
26 June 2026
FNB/BER Civil Confidence Index
Tuesday
30 June 2026
Inflation Expectations Survey
Friday
26 June 2026
Building Cost Report (BCIS)
The first working day of each month
Absa PMI
The first working day of each month
Update
The first week of each month
Trends
Every Friday
BER Weekly
The BER Economist Internship Programme provides practical training to appropriately qualified previously disadvantaged individuals. The programme equips trainees to function as economists in the private and/or the public sector.
